The Knockout Bid: Does Going Big Early Win More Auctions?
Not really knocking out anyone with a $300k bid on this 911
"Trust me, the knockout bid is the best way to win"
In the fast-paced world of car auctions, everyone is looking for an edge to win. This has spawned a variety of strategies over the years, ways to deter other buyers so that you will become the one on top. A common one that has always been in discussion amongst my colleagues is the knockout bid:
Is it better to place a big, market-close "knockout bid" early, or to climb slowly in small increments until the auction ends?
The idea is simple: if you place a strong bid early, one that's already competitive with the market value, you might deter competitors from nibbling the price upward and secure the win without a last-minute bidding war.
In typical Hypercars fashion, we will let the data guide us to our answer.
The Full Dataset: Bring a Trailer
For this experiment, we limited our dataset to the most popular online auction marketplace: Bring a Trailer.
These buckets represent the time the winning bid was placed:
- 2 hours remaining
- 1 hour remaining
- 10 minutes remaining
Then, they were additionally classified into four buckets based on the distance between the winning bid and the next closest bid:
- >50%
- 50–26%
- 25–11%
- ≤10%
2 Hours Left
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 373 | $15,000 | $30,791 |
| 50–26% | 523 | $15,000 | $29,677 |
| 25–11% | 837 | $15,000 | $31,558 |
| ≤10% | 5,132 | $21,750 | $43,255 |
1 Hour Left
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 381 | $15,000 | $30,385 |
| 50–26% | 561 | $14,500 | $28,846 |
| 25–11% | 937 | $15,000 | $30,825 |
| ≤10% | 5,804 | $21,250 | $30,111 |
10 Minutes Left
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 400 | $15,000 | $29,559 |
| 50–26% | 684 | $14,000 | $26,905 |
| 25–11% | 1,346 | $13,500 | $28,119 |
| ≤10% | 9,688 | $19,500 | $40,411 |
Key Takeaways for All Listings
- The vast majority of winning bids in the final stages are small increments (≤10%), suggesting most winning bids are made during higher bid activity.
- Larger early bids (>50%) are relatively rare but still present.
Above $100k Auctions
I know what you are thinking, Kent, that's not true for the 911 market.
I agree, the all data set is too broad and the majority of Bring a Trailer listings sell below $50k mark. Does this behavior change when we look at the higher end market? So let's run the same analysis for only listings with a winning bid above $100,000.
2 Hours Left — Above $100k
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 18 | $130,000 | $220,616 |
| 50–26% | 20 | $150,000 | $227,224 |
| 25–11% | 46 | $154,999 | $211,710 |
| ≤10% | 423 | $160,000 | $225,831 |
1 Hour Left — Above $100k
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 18 | $130,000 | $220,616 |
| 50–26% | 20 | $150,000 | $227,224 |
| 25–11% | 50 | $154,999 | $211,267 |
| ≤10% | 478 | $160,000 | $230,218 |
10 Minutes Left — Above $100k
| Distance from Next Bid | Count | Median Winning Bid | Avg Winning Bid |
|---|---|---|---|
| >50% | 18 | $130,000 | $220,616 |
| 50–26% | 21 | $150,000 | $222,356 |
| 25–11% | 59 | $150,000 | $222,188 |
| ≤10% | 721 | $159,500 | $233,420 |
Key Takeaways for Above $100k Auctions
- Even for high-value listings, the majority of bidding activity in the final stages is small increments — over 85% are ≤10% of the final price.
- Early big bids (>50%) are extremely rare (fewer than 20 occurrences in each time bucket).
- Average winning bids for late small increments are slightly higher than those with early knockout bids, implying late-stage competition can inflate prices.
The Verdict: Is the Knockout Bid a Winning Strategy?
For all listings, an early knockout bid doesn't appear to dramatically improve odds, but it may limit escalation in some cases by discouraging other bidders.
- Early knockout bids might work best as a psychological deterrent.
- Late incremental bids dominate and tend to push prices upward, especially in high-end auctions.
In short: A knockout bid might give you peace of mind and scare off casual bidders, but it's no guarantee of winning the auction against real competition.
If you're on the selling side, understanding bidding behavior is just one piece of the puzzle. Check our auction fee comparison to understand the costs of each platform, and use market trends to time your listing for maximum demand.